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17.08.2026 04:52 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday, and this may persist into the coming week. Recall that the US dollar has accumulated all possible factors for its decline in recent months, so even in the absence of local news and reports, it may continue to fall based on technical factors. We continue to draw traders' attention to the fact that the British currency began moving from the lower boundary of the sideways channel on the daily/weekly TF towards the upper boundary, around the 1.3900 level. Thus, even without tightening monetary policy from the Bank of England or a peace agreement between the US and Iran, the pound can continue to rise. Moreover, the probability of Federal Reserve tightening in the coming months has decreased to almost zero, while the US economy under Donald Trump is more stalling than growing. This week, several important data points will be published in the UK, but the main focus should be on the inflation report. If inflation begins to accelerate, the BoE may raise the key rate in the fall, which would be an additional growth factor for the British currency.
From a technical perspective, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly TF. In the long term, the pair remains in a sideways channel and continues to move from the lower boundary of this channel to the upper boundary. Therefore, the nearest target is 1.3588, but this level does not look like a "final stop."
On the 5-minute TF on Friday, at least one trading signal was generated. In the European trading session, the price overcame the critical Kijun-sen line, then gained around 20-30 pips by the end of the day. Volatility remains low, but pound sterling overall is showing relatively stable growth.
The COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with selling positions for several consecutive months. The net position is negative, despite the long-term upward trend persisting. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict continues. Geopolitics can support demand for the US dollar in the near future. However, we would not expect a strong decline in the pair until there is consolidation below the trend line.
In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently tested this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 11), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,300 BUY contracts and 8,600 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 1,700 contracts during the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" higher and have been in sideways channels for a full year, which does not negate the upward trend that began in 2022. We expect continued growth from the British pound over the coming weeks. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price solidifies below the trend line.
For August 17, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3471) and the Kijun-sen (1.3517) can also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss to break-even after the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Monday, there are no important events or macroeconomic publications scheduled in the UK or the US, so strong movements are unlikely today. However, the upward trend remains, meaning the pound sterling could gain another 20-30 pips.
Today, traders may consider short positions with targets of 1.3465-1.3480 if the price solidifies below the Kijun-sen line. Long positions can be opened in the event of a bounce from the critical line, with a target of 1.3588.
Price support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines denote trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
