"You can't conquer Hormuz with a tweet, a campaign speech, or an aircraft carrier"

Donald Trump's administration has announced the introduction this week of new sanctions against Iran, which, the White House says, will bring the republic's economic isolation to an unprecedented level. Speaking in New York State, the US president said he intends to officially declare the strategically important Strait of Hormuz US territory in the near future. He stressed that American armed forces already de facto fully control the waters and continue the naval blockade. According to the president, final victory over Iran will be achieved very soon.

Iranian authorities categorically rejected the White House statements, stressing that the Strait of Hormuz was, is and will remain under Tehran's full control. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the waters cannot be seized with a social?media post, a campaign speech or by sending an aircraft carrier. Navigation, he added, will be regulated exclusively by orders from the Iranian command until the United States recognizes the reality. In turn, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that no decision has yet been made to resume talks with the United States. Previous channels of communication have lost effectiveness, and Tehran is now working on a new temporary form of engagement.

Battle for the Senate

Prominent financial analyst Charlie Bilello sharply criticized Washington's fiscal policy, pointing to an increase in the US federal debt of more than $550 billion in just one and a half months since July 1. Against the backdrop of record government borrowing, the military conflict with Iran — which has driven up prices for gasoline, electricity and food — has become a key economic factor ahead of the midterm elections.

This is forcing candidates from both parties to urgently recalibrate their rhetoric to voters. With just over 2.5 months until the November 3 midterms and the primary season all but over, Democrats lead Republicans in House races by 48–49% to 41–42%, making a change of control of the lower chamber highly likely.

In the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53–47 edge, Democrats have strong chances of flipping seats in Ohio and North Carolina and are fighting hard for positions in Texas, Maine and Alaska. Fearing defeat in the House races and the inevitable launch of a series of congressional investigations into his administration, Donald Trump is taking steps to change electoral procedures. The US president has filed an urgent appeal to the Supreme Court asking it to overturn lower?court rulings that blocked his executive order banning mail?in voting, which creates the risk of delaying the certification of election results and disrupting the start of the 120th Congress on January 3, 2027.

US federal debt hits records

The federal debt has risen by more than $550 billion since early July, drawing sharp criticism from analysts over runaway government spending. Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan called the Fed's decision to hold rates in July "absolutely correct," urging the central bank's leadership to avoid rigid political signaling until the September meeting. Kaplan highlighted the dual impact of artificial intelligence: massive capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, while tariffs and rising oil prices are adding to inflation; at the same time, productivity gains from AI use contribute to disinflation. Looking ahead to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance, the analyst recommended briefly explaining the rationale for the July pause, noting that the spike in long?term US Treasury yields was driven not by Fed policy but by a chronic budget deficit.

August 17

17 August, 02:50 / Japan / GDP growth in Q2 / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: 2.0% / USD/JPY – down

The Japanese economy grew 1.8% year?on?year in the first quarter, a significant acceleration from 0.7% in the previous period. The increase was supported by:

• higher private consumption and growth in export shipments
• a rise in public investment in infrastructure and reconstruction

Business investment, however, fell due to high interest rates and cautious corporate sentiment. The forecast assumes further acceleration, which should support the yen.

17 August, 02:50 / Japan / GDP deflator in Q2 (preliminary) / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.2% / forecast: 3.8% / USD/JPY – down

Japan's GDP deflator fell to 112.70 points after reaching a record high of 115.50 points in the previous quarter. The correction reflects some easing of overall price pressure in the domestic economy. The next report is expected to show an increase in the deflator, which would raise the likelihood of tighter BOJ policy and support the yen.

17 August, 04:30 / China / New home price index in 70 cities in July / prev.: -3.5% / actual: -3.3% / forecast: -3.4% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

Prices for new homes in 70 Chinese cities in June fell 3.3% year?on?year, the lowest rate of decline since February. The slowdown in negative dynamics was recorded in major megacities:

• Guangzhou (-2.6%)
• Shenzhen (-3.6%)
• Chongqing (-4.2%)
• Tianjin (-4.6%)

Shanghai remained the only center of growth, with property prices up 3.1%. July expectations assume a more negative scenario; its realization would put pressure on oil and the yuan.

17 August, 05:00 / China / Industrial production in July / prev.: 4.5% / actual: 5.3% / forecast: 4.8% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

China's industrial production in June rose 5.3% year?on?year, a high not seen since March. Key drivers of output expansion were:

• IT equipment and electronics production (+15.7%)
• shipbuilding and railway engineering (+18.2%)
• automobile manufacturing (+8.7%)
• special equipment (+10.0%)

Constraining factors included declines in coal mining (-5.9%) and building materials production (-3.8%). July forecasts assume a slowdown in dynamics; if that occurs, oil and the yuan would be in a weak position.

17 August, 07:30 / Japan / Industrial production in June (final) / prev.: 2.0% / actual: -2.1% / forecast: 4.2% / USD/JPY – down

Industrial production in Japan for June is expected at 4.2% year?on?year, which would be the strongest rise in almost four years and confirm a recovery in factory activity. If this forecast is confirmed, the yen will receive good support.

17 August, 07:30 / Japan / Services activity index in June (m/m) / prev.: 0.8% / actual: 1.1% / forecast: -1.0% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's services sector activity index for May rose 1.1% month?on?month, offsetting the prior period's dip. The indicator showed a marked revival in consumer and business demand for services. However, June's report assumes a sharp slowdown in the index's growth; in that case the yen would come under pressure.

17 August, 15:30 / Canada / Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July / prev.: 3.2% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: 2.9% / USD/CAD – down

Canada's annual inflation in June slowed to 2.8% from a two?year high. The easing of price pressure was supported by:

• a slowdown in gasoline price growth from 33.2% to 20.5%
• lower grocery inflation to 3.5%
• slower growth in housing costs (1.5%) and medical services (2.5%)

Key core measures tracked by the Bank of Canada also fell to five?year lows, and CPI declined 0.4% month?on?month. July forecasts assume a reversal of the indicator. Such a scenario would strengthen the Canadian dollar.

17 August, 15:30 / US / Empire State Manufacturing Index (leading) in August / prev.: 5.7 pts / actual: 15.6 pts / forecast: 10.2 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index for July jumped to 15.6 points, signaling a significant rebound in industry. The rise was driven by:

• strong increases in new orders and shipments
• a rise in backlogs and delivery delays
• solid hiring growth at firms

Meanwhile, growth in input and finished goods prices eased slightly, and companies remain optimistic about the coming months. The next report's forecast assumes a moderate correction; if realized, it would indicate a slowdown in sector momentum and weaken the US dollar.

17 August, 17:00 / US / NAHB Housing Market Index in August (leading) / prev.: 36 pts / actual: 34 pts / forecast: 33 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

The NAHB/Wells Fargo builder confidence index in the US fell to 34 points in July, marking continued cooling in the new?home market. The negative trend was driven by:

• current sales conditions dropping to 37 pts and weakening prospective buyer demand
• reduced sales expectations for the next six months to 43 pts
• a rise in the share of builders cutting prices (37%) and offering discounts (63%)

August forecasts assume a further decline in the index, which will weigh on the US dollar.

17 August, 23:00 / US / Net investment inflows in June / prev.: $104.8 bn / actual: $232.7 bn / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile

In May, net long?term inflows into the US economy more than doubled compared with April. The average net long?term inflow to the US was $24,362.87 million for the period 1978–2026. The historical maximum was $257,290.00 million in May 2025.

August 18

18 August, 03:30 / Australia / Westpac consumer sentiment index in August (leading) / prev.: -2.9% / actual: 4.1% / forecast: -2.6% / AUD/USD – down

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer confidence index in Australia rose 4.1% in July, offsetting the May decline. Analytical forecasts for the next release assume a reversal of the trend, which would weigh on the Australian dollar.

18 August, 03:30 / Australia / Westpac consumer sentiment index in August (leading) / prev.: 80.6 pts / actual: 83.9 pts / forecast: 81.7 pts / AUD/USD – down

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer confidence index in Australia climbed to 83.9 points in July, recovering from the June dip. Improved sentiment was supported by:

• easing concerns about energy and borrowing costs
• a 13.4% jump in households' one?year ahead financial expectations
• a 7.1% decline in negative unemployment expectations

Despite the rise, the indicator remains in the lower 10% of its historical distribution due to persistent global geopolitical tensions. The next release is expected to show a fall in the index, which would pressure the AUD.

18 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Change in employment (ONS) in June / prev.: 99k / actual: 148k / forecast: 200k / GBP/USD – up

Employment in the UK for the three months to May increased by 148k, beating average market estimates. The solid labor?market expansion was supported by:

• rises in both full?time and part?time employment
• a year?on?year increase of 340k in the number of people in work
• an increase in moonlighters to 1.278 million

The overall employment rate for people aged 16–64 stood at 75.1%. Forecasts for the next period assume faster hiring; if realized, this would boost the pound.

18 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Average wages in June / prev.: 4.4% / actual: 4.3% / forecast: 4.0% / GBP/USD – down

Average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to May rose 4.3% year?on?year — the weakest increase since February. Wage dynamics reflected:

• slower pay growth in the private sector (4.0%)
• faster pay in the public sector (5.5%)

Adjusted for inflation, real wage growth was 1.1%. The June report's forecasts assume a deceleration in wage growth, which would weigh on the pound.

18 August, 12:00 / Eurozone / ZEW economic sentiment index in August (leading) / prev.: 9.5 pts / actual: 23.4 pts / forecast: 25.4 pts / EUR/USD – up

The ZEW economic sentiment index for the eurozone rose by 13.9 points to 23.4, hitting a five?month high. Improvement was driven by:

• market hopes for a resolution of the Iran conflict
• a 5.7?point lift in the assessment of the current situation (to -37.7)
• a 35.4?point drop in experts' inflation expectations

Some 29.7% of surveyed analysts expect an improvement in economic activity in the bloc. July forecasts assume further gains in the index; confirmation would support the euro.

18 August, 12:00 / Germany / ZEW economic sentiment index in August (leading) / prev.: 10.5 pts / actual: 26.3 pts / forecast: 30.0 pts / EUR/USD – up

Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 26.3 points in July, the highest since February. The optimism was supported by:

• strong improvements in mechanical engineering sentiment (+14.5 pts) and private consumption expectations (+14.7 pts)
• better readings in construction (+12.7 pts)
• expectations of an effective package of government reforms

Constraining forces included high oil prices and a sharp deterioration in auto sector sentiment (-11.3 pts). August forecasts call for further strengthening of the indicator. Realization of this scenario would bolster the euro.

18 August, 12:00 / Germany / ZEW current conditions index in August (leading) / prev.: -81.0 pts / actual: -77.6 pts / forecast: -77.0 pts / EUR/USD – up

The ZEW current conditions index for Germany rose to -77.6 points in July, showing signs of a gradual recovery from multi?month lows amid a rebound in domestic demand. The August release is expected to show continued recovery; confirmation would reinforce the euro.

18 August, 15:15 / Canada / Housing starts in July (m/m) / prev.: 253.1k / actual: 239.0k / forecast: 248.0k / USD/CAD – down

Housing starts in Canada fell 6% month?on?month in June. Dynamics across major metros were mixed:

• Vancouver starts dropped 35% due to a decline in multi?unit and private housing
• Toronto starts rose 25%, and Montreal starts rose 10%

Completed projects rose 8.4% to 18,298 units. July forecasts assume a resumption of growth; if realized, that would support the Canadian dollar.

18 August, 15:15 / US / ADP weekly change in employment (week) / prev.: 15.00k / actual: 8.25k / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile

The ADP weekly employment measure slowed to an increase of 8.25k jobs, marking a notable slowdown in hiring versus the prior week. Another drop in the next release could weigh on the US dollar.

18 August, 15:30 / US / Building permits in July / prev.: 1.410m / actual: 1.374m / forecast: 1.370m / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

Building permits in the US fell 2.6% (to 1.374m) in June, despite a slight upward revision to initial estimates. The three?month low developer activity reflected:

• a 3.1% drop in multi?unit permits and a 2.2% drop in single?family permits
• a notable fall in developer requests in the South (-7.1%) and West (-4.3%)
• pressure from high mortgage rates and rising unsold inventory

Only the Northeast (+16.5%) and the Midwest (+5.2%) recorded local increases. Analysts expect further declines in July; confirmation would weaken the dollar.

18 August, 15:30 / US / Housing starts in July / prev.: 1.199m / actual: 1.427m / forecast: 1.350m / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

Housing starts in the US jumped 19% in June, hitting a three?month high. The surge was driven by:

• a 76.3% jump in multi?unit starts (to 513k)
• strong activity in the Midwest (+33.3%), West (+22.1%) and South (+15.2%)

Single?family starts fell 0.2% due to high mortgage rates. July forecasts call for a correction to 1.350m; if realized, that would indicate a cooling developer boom and weigh on the dollar.

18 August, 15:30 / US / Export prices index in July / prev.: 11.3% / actual: 10.2% / forecast: 9.6% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

The US export price index rose 10.2% year?on?year in June, slowing from May's 11.3%. The pullback reflects stabilization in external commodity prices, though current readings remain well above long?run averages. July forecasts assume continued deceleration in export inflation, which could weaken the dollar.

18 August, 15:30 / US / Import prices index in July / prev.: 6.7% / actual: 7.1% / forecast: 7.2% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

US import prices rose 7.1% year?on?year in June, the fastest pace in almost four years. Key drivers included:

• a 44.1% jump in imported fuel prices due to supply tightness in the Middle East
• a 4.2% rise in non?fuel import prices

Forecasts for the next period assume further increases in import prices, creating headwinds for the dollar.

18 August, 15:30 / US / New York Fed services activity index in August (leading) / prev.: -10.1 pts / actual: 8.7 pts / forecast: – / USDX (6?currency USD index) – volatile

The New York state services activity index rose 19 points in July, marking the sector's first gain in two years. Positive dynamics were driven by:

• a 13?point rise in the business climate index (to -24)
• renewed business optimism for the next six months
• continued solid hiring with moderate easing of price pressures

18 August, 16:15 / US / Industrial production in July / prev.: 1.6% / actual: 1.1% / forecast: 1.0% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

US industrial production rose 1.1% year?on?year in June, slowing versus revised May figures. The growth breakdown included:

• mining output up 2.4%
• manufacturing output up 1.1%
• utilities sector expanding 0.3%

July expectations point to further compression of growth, which would weaken the dollar.

18 August, 17:00 / US / Pending home sales index in July / prev.: 4.8% / actual: -0.3% / forecast: 1.4% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

US pending home transactions fell 0.3% year?on?year in June, ending a two?month growth streak. The loss of momentum in the resale market reflects the drag from high mortgage rates and rising borrowing costs. July forecasts assume a return to positive territory; confirmation would signal stabilization in housing demand and support the dollar.

18 August, 23:30 / US / API crude oil inventories for the week / prev.: 2.690m bbl / actual: 9.072m bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile

US commercial crude inventories rose by 9.072 million barrels for the week, well above market expectations. Inventory movements were influenced by:

• imports exceeding exports
• a 1.570 million barrel build at the Cushing terminal
• US daily crude production rising to 13.804 million barrels

At the same time, 6.1 million barrels were drawn from the strategic reserve, and the cumulative reduction in commercial stocks over the past 17 weeks exceeded 49 million barrels.

August 19

19 August, 02:50 / Japan / Machinery orders volume in June (m/m) / prev.: 8.7% / actual: -12.4% / forecast: 7.9% / USD/JPY – down

The core volume of machinery orders in Japan for May fell 12.4% month?on?month, marking the sharpest decline since late 2019. The cutback in capital spending was observed across all sectors:

• orders from manufacturers fell 14.9% (mainly in shipbuilding and ICT electronics)
• demand from non?manufacturing firms dropped 9.3% (due to weakness in real estate and transport)

On a year?on?year basis, the indicator fell 1.5% after a 15.6% surge in April. The June report is forecast to show a solid recovery, which would support the yen.

19 August, 03:30 / Australia / Wage price index in Q2 / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.3% / forecast: 3.2% / AUD/USD – down

Australia's wage price index for Q1 (seasonally adjusted) rose 3.3% year?on?year, recording the slowest pace in recent years. Slower pay growth was seen across key sectors:

• private sector up 3.2% (the weakest since Q2 2022)
• public sector slowed to 3.3%

By industry, the largest annual increase was in electricity & water (+4.3%), while administrative services showed the smallest rise (+2.8%). Wage?pressure is expected to ease in Q2, which could weigh on the Australian dollar.

19 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Change in employment (ONS) in June / prev.: 99k / actual: 148k / forecast: 200k / GBP/USD – up

Employment in the UK for the three months to May increased by 148k, beating average market estimates. The labor market's solid expansion was supported by:

• rises in both full?time and part?time employment
• a year?on?year increase of 340k in total employment
• an increase in the number of people with second jobs to 1.278 million

The overall employment rate for ages 16–64 stood at 75.1%. Forecasts for the next period assume faster hiring; confirmation would boost the pound.

19 August, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Average weekly earnings in June / prev.: 4.4% / actual: 4.3% / forecast: 4.0% / GBP/USD – down

Average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to May rose 4.3% year?on?year — the weakest increase since February. Pay dynamics were influenced by:

• slower private?sector pay growth to 4.0%
• faster public?sector pay growth to 5.5%

Adjusted for inflation, real wage growth was 1.1%. The June report's forecast assumes a further slowdown in wage growth, which would weigh on the pound.

19 August, 12:00 / Eurozone / CPI in July / prev.: 3.2% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: 2.9% / EUR/USD – up

Eurozone consumer inflation in July accelerated to 2.9% year?on?year, staying above the ECB's target. The rise in price pressure was driven by:

• energy inflation jumping to 10.0% due to renewed US?Iran tensions
• services inflation rising to 3.3% and industrial goods to 0.9%
• faster CPI in major economies: Germany (2.8%), Spain (3.8%) and France (2.4%)

Core inflation excluding food and energy also rose to 2.5%. The next release is forecast to show continued growth in inflation measures. Such a scenario would force the ECB to maintain tight policy settings and support the euro.

19 August, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: 2.479m bbl / actual: 17.422m bbl / forecast: 6.913m bbl / Brent – down

US commercial crude inventories rose by 17.422 million barrels for the week, hitting highs not seen since early 2023. Builds were driven by:

• a rise in net crude imports of 1.768 million b/d
• a 1.768 million barrel increase in stocks at the Cushing hub

At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 0.968 million barrels and refinery runs rose by 26k b/d. The next report is expected to show further inventory builds, which could push oil prices lower.

17 August, 12:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD

18 August, 14:45 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD

19 August, 05:45 / Australia / Speech by Deputy Governor of the RBA Andrew Hauser / AUD/USD

19 August, 10:10 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD

19 August, 21:00 / US / Publication of the FOMC minutes from the 29 July meeting / policy rate – 3.75% / USDX

Speeches by senior officials of major central banks matter a lot to market sentiment. Their comments usually trigger FX market volatility because they can signal policymakers' next moves on interest rates.