Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are significant. In Germany and the EU, second estimates of the business activity indices for the services sector will be published; in the Eurozone, retail sales figures are due; and in the US, jobless claims data will be released. Over the past 2.5 months, the market has ignored many, many more important reports, and tomorrow, the US will release data on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls. Therefore, we do not expect any reaction to the macroeconomic background today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the key events on Tuesday, we can highlight the speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank (Lane, de Guindos, Schnabel) and the Federal Reserve (Hammack, Williams). However, last week there were meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, so traders already know the positions of all central banks on monetary policy. We learned that the Fed is not inclined to change its monetary policy in 2026, while the ECB and the BoE have taken a wait-and-see approach and are not overly concerned about rising inflation, hoping for an end to the conflict in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB and the BoE are ready to raise key rates in the summer if an acute necessity arises, but the Fed is not. It is unlikely that the positions of the central bank representatives have changed over the past week.

The geopolitical background has begun to shift, but unfortunately, words suggest one thing while facts tell another. Officially, Iran and the US are about to sign a preliminary agreement that would allow for a complete ceasefire, begin the process of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, and coordinate terms for a long-term peace in the Middle East. However, on the ground, Iran bombed the UAE and struck American destroyers on Monday and Tuesday, while the US fleet destroyed several Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs will trade on "bare" technicals if no news comes from the Middle East. In fact, both the euro and the pound have been trading in a range for several weeks, and the market is responding very sluggishly to any news. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3587-1.3598. Volatility today may be low.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.