Trade Review and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1828 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

Weak data showing that in January 2026 the eurozone services PMI once again came in below economists' forecasts increased pressure on the euro. This is already the third consecutive decline, raising concerns about the overall condition of the region's economy. Clearly, the situation varies significantly from country to country. In some eurozone economies, such as Germany and Spain, a decline in services sector activity was recorded. At the same time, in some countries—such as Italy and France—a slight increase was observed, indicating an uneven economic recovery across the region.

In the second half of the day, particular attention will be paid to the release of the U.S. ADP employment change report, as well as data on the ISM services business activity index and the composite PMI. These macroeconomic indicators will serve as important guides for traders seeking to assess the current state and near-term outlook of the U.S. economy. Significant discrepancies between actual figures and forecasts in the ADP report may trigger volatility in financial markets. Strong results would lead to a strengthening of the dollar. The business activity indices published by ISM and PMI are also important indicators. An increase in these indices points to an improvement in the business environment and a rise in economic activity, while a decline signals slowing growth or even recession. The composite PMI, which combines data from manufacturing and services, provides a more comprehensive picture of the economy.

Positive data may strengthen expectations of further economic growth and support the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching the price level around 1.1828 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1855. At the 1.1855 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected only after weak statistics.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1805 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1828 and 1.1855 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1805 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1779 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return with strong statistics.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1828 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1805 and 1.1779 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.