Two fairly important US reports were released yesterday, yet the market's reaction was nil. Clearly, on closer inspection, the figures were not as strong as they first appeared.

New?home sales in the US rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July's 643,000, but remained 2.0% below August last year's 698,000. The average sale price of a new home in August was $478,700 — 9.1% below July's $526,400 and 8.8% below last year's level — while the median price actually edged up slightly to $393,700 from $392,200 in July, but still sits 5.8% below the year?ago mark. This implies that the sales increase was driven primarily by more affordable homes rather than a broad market recovery. The sharp divergence between the mean and median price points to a shift in the sales mix toward the cheaper segment rather than a sustainable pick?up in demand across the market.

The supply of homes for sale at the end of August stood at 483,000, virtually unchanged from July and 2.0% below the year?ago level. At the current sales pace, this corresponds to 8.5 months of inventory versus 9.0 months in July — so the housing market has eased slightly but remains well above the level typically associated with a healthy supply?demand balance.

At the same time, labor market data added another stroke to the picture of moderate cooling. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19 fell by 1,000 to 197,000, and the four?week moving average declined to 202,250 from 204,000 a week earlier. Continued claims for the week ending September 12, however, rose slightly to 1,719,000, although the four?week average for this series fell to 1,744,000 from 1,757,000. The direct reading here is: the fall in initial claims indicates mass layoffs are still not occurring, but the small rise in continued claims suggests finding a new job after separation has become a bit harder than a month ago — so the labor market is cooling more through slower hiring than rising layoffs.

It is this combination of the two reports that explains the dollar's muted reaction. Neither release gave market participants a clear argument for further Fed tightening or for an imminent pause: housing sales increased, but due to a lower average ticket, and the labor market painted a mixed rather than decisive picture. Against the backdrop of this week's far clearer signals — such as record PMI business?activity readings and a series of hawkish Fed comments — these two reports were not significant enough on their own to move market expectations decisively in either direction.

In my view, each report individually confirms the already established picture of gradual, not abrupt, cooling in the US economy, which is why the dollar treated them calmly and continues to focus on more weighty signals like Fed speeches and activity data. I would not be surprised if the next truly meaningful trigger for the dollar comes not before the September employment report or fresh regulator commentary, rather than from another housing or claims print.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD Buyers should think about taking out 1.1390. Only then will a test of 1.1415 be possible. From there, a move to 1.1430 could follow, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On a decline, I expect significant buying only around 1.1360. If no buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1335 or open longs from 1.1315.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3240. Only then will a move toward 1.3285 become realistic, above which further advances will be difficult. The next extended target is around 1.3315. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of 1.3200; a break would seriously damage bull positions and push GBP/USD toward 1.3180 with the prospect of extending to 1.3150.