On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday pulled back to the support level of 1.3352–1.3362 after rebounding from the 1.3425 level on Thursday evening. Today, a consolidation of quotes below this level would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next corrective level of 61.8% – 1.3294. A rebound of the pair from the 1.3352–1.3362 level would favor the British pound and the resumption of the bullish trend toward the 1.3425 level.

The wave picture turned bullish two weeks ago. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend currently remains bullish. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have fully worked it off, while the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to continue attacking, but their positions are currently better than those of the bears. The completion of the bullish trend can only be confirmed below the 1.3294 level.

There was no news background on Friday, and traders used the "newsless time" for a corrective pullback. No news is expected today either, unlike the period from Tuesday to Friday. Thus, today traders can rest a bit more before the real show begins. Let me remind you that this week the UK will hold a Bank of England meeting, and reports on unemployment, inflation, and business activity will be released. In the U.S., the FOMC meeting has already taken place, but this week reports on unemployment, inflation, and the labor market will be published, which are of even greater importance to traders than the corresponding UK reports. Traders have not seen labor market data for more than two months, so it is sure to leave a strong impression on their mindset and trading tactics in the near term. I would also like to note that the New Year is approaching; traders may begin to leave the market (not this week), but this does not necessarily mean weaker moves. Trading volumes will decline, but the strength of movements depends on the imbalance between bulls and bears. In a "holiday market," it is easier to create an advantage than under normal conditions.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435. A rebound of quotes from this level favored the U.S. dollar and the start of a decline toward the 1.3140 level. A consolidation of the pair above 1.3435 would allow expectations of further growth toward the Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category did not change over the last reporting week, but this reporting week was a month ago—November 18. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 766, while the number of short positions decreased by 981. The gap between the number of long and short positions currently stands at approximately 53,000 versus 132,000. As we can see, bears dominated a month ago, but the situation may now be completely different. And in the euro, the situation was the exact opposite even a month ago. Thus, I do not believe that the market for the pound is currently bearish.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency does enjoy demand from time to time, but I consider this a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy in order to halt the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan significant monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be sure of this, as labor market statistics are still unavailable.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On December 15, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Sell positions could be opened after a rebound from the 1.3425 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3362. The target has been reached. New sell positions can be considered after a close below the 1.3352–1.3362 level, with a target of 1.3294. Buy positions may be considered today after a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 zone on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.

Fibonacci level grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.