Trade review and trading advice on the euro

The price test at 1.1748 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test triggered scenario No. 2 for selling, continuing yesterday's bearish market, but no significant decline followed.

Next, key statistical data will be released that will directly affect the U.S. dollar. This refers to the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the U.S. unemployment rate for April. Labor market indicators are fundamental for assessing the health of the economy. Strong readings, indicating job creation and low unemployment, may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high to curb inflationary pressure, which would strengthen the dollar. Otherwise, growth in EUR/USD may resume with renewed strength.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I will consider buying the euro if the price reaches the 1.1780 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1815. At 1.1815, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. Growth in the euro today is only possible after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1765 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 1.1780 and 1.1815 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1765 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1731, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure will return today if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1780 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1765 and 1.1731 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important note: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing strategy for intraday traders.