Analysis of trades and trading advice for the European currency

The price test at 1.1631 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro and resulting in a drop of the pair to the target level of 1.1585.

The sharp increase in the number of employed persons in the U.S. non-farm sector came as a real surprise to financial markets, triggering a wave of sell-offs in risk assets and strengthening the U.S. dollar on Friday. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that 172,000 jobs were created last month, exceeding economists' forecasts. This indicates the strength of the American economy. The strengthening of the dollar and expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy also create a negative backdrop for the euro.

Today's financial agenda promises to be eventful, especially for the European region. The first half of the day will be marked by the publication of two macroeconomic indicators that can set the tone for the trading day and significantly influence investor sentiment. Attention will focus on data regarding changes in industrial orders in Germany. This indicator is one of the key barometers of the health of the largest European economy. A decrease in orders may signal a slowdown in production activity, which will undoubtedly raise concerns about the future prospects of the German economy.

At the same time, traders will monitor the Sentix investor confidence index for the eurozone. This monthly survey reflects the sentiments of institutional and private investors regarding the current and future state of the eurozone economy. It is clear that nothing good should be expected from this indicator either.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I can buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1539 (green line on the chart), with a target to reach 1.1570. At point 1.1570, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in euros can only be expected after good data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1521 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal in market direction. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1539 and 1.1570.

Selling scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1521 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1490, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in the case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decrease from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1539 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. A decrease can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1521 and 1.1490.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.