Analysis Of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. To be precise, there is only one, which is absolutely secondary. In the US, a report on unemployment claims will be released today, which is unlikely to interest anyone in the market. Yesterday, the market once again ignored much more important data from the European Union and the US.

Analysis Of Fundamental Events:

It makes little sense to highlight the speeches of ECB or Fed representatives on Wednesday. The market continues to ignore all factors unrelated to geopolitics. Last night, there was another speech by US President Donald Trump, who once again promised to end the war in the Middle East in the very near future, a conflict he himself started. Trump also mentioned that strikes on Iran could continue for another two to three weeks to completely paralyze the production of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. The US president made it clear that America is not interested in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, and that issue should be handled by the countries that need it for oil transportation. As we can see, there have been no clear signals of an imminent end to the war, and Trump is generally not concerned about the Strait of Hormuz or oil prices.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in either direction, as the market continues to operate solely on geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3203-1.3212. We still do not see grounds for a sustained rise in the US dollar (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), but in the near future, geopolitics will remain the key factor in the currency market.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.