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Wolfe Research: Trump’s truce to hardly save Republicans from likely midterm defeat
The end of the military conflict between the United States and Iran is unlikely to save the Republican Party from defeat in November’s midterm elections, according to a Wolfe Research note. The war proved longer and more painful than expected and has become a serious political burden for the Trump administration.
The president’s approval ratings have been steadily falling since his inauguration. Wolfe Research analysts estimate that even if support for Trump recovers to prewar levels after the truce, it will still remain more than 10 percentage points below the key 50% mark. The main drop in ratings came from voters who traditionally favor Republicans. Their potential return may reduce turnout risk, but it will not resolve the party’s fundamental electoral problems.
Democrats remain highly unpopular, so gains in their polling lag the pace of Trump’s decline. Voters are not prepared to treat the end of the Middle East conflict as a victory. The majority of Americans believe the country is worse off because of the spike in energy prices and because the president directly violated his campaign pledge not to become involved in new wars.
With a 14‑point memorandum signed this week and easing pressure on commodity markets, investors are reassessing the political landscape. Wolfe Research keeps its baseline forecast: Democrats will convincingly win a majority in the House of Representatives but will narrowly lose the Senate to Republicans. Analysts plan to update their assessments in the coming weeks as the full electorate reaction to the long‑awaited truce becomes clear.
Published 23 June 2026
© InstaFintech Group
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© InstaFintech Group
