West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the American benchmark, is showing a partial recovery after trading began on Monday.

Over the past weekend, US President Donald Trump announced the United States' intention to take measures to free vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian Parliament's Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, issued an official warning that any US intervention in the situation in this strategically important waterway would constitute a violation of the ceasefire. This situation creates additional risks for worsening conditions in the region and raises new concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies through the Strait.

Additionally, the lack of progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran adds to the uncertainty and supports higher crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, the alliance of oil-exporting countries, including OPEC and its allies, decided to increase oil production for the third consecutive month: in June, seven participating countries plan to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day. It is also worth noting that buying activity, spurred by expectations of a strengthening US dollar, has kept oil prices in the "red zone" for three trading days. Persistent geopolitical risks and renewed expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are strengthening the American currency. This circumstance suggests caution and does not allow for confident assertions that the recent pullback from the nearly two-month high recorded last Thursday is already complete.

From a technical perspective, oil is trading above all moving averages, with the nearest support being the 9-day EMA. Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' strong positions. Therefore, the path of least resistance remains upward.