Trade review and trading advice for the Japanese yen

The test of the 155.95 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Today, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said in an interview that the country has room to take decisive measures against the weakening of the Japanese yen and excessive exchange-rate fluctuations. All of this led to a decline in the USD/JPY pair, which continued during the European session. Ms. Katayama's statement, which came like a bolt from the blue, instantly overturned investors' perceptions of the Bank of Japan's future policy. Such rhetoric, if backed by real actions to raise interest rates, could shift the balance of power in the currency market and put an end to the dollar's dominance over the yen—at least in the short term.

However, in addition to statements by Japanese officials, traders' attention in the second half of the day will be drawn to data on U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter, the key consumer spending index, and the consumer confidence index. These figures will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the markets. Traders will closely watch for confirmation or refutation of the increasingly widespread talk about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Unexpected readings that differ from forecasts may trigger volatility and a reassessment of risks.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 156.18 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 156.59 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.59, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Continued growth of the pair can be expected in line with the prevailing trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.89 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.18 and 156.59 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below (renewal of) the 155.89 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.43 level, where I will exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pair may return today in the event of weak U.S. economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.18 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.89 and 155.43 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.